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Working Papers

Geographic Diversity in Economic Publishing (with Simon Angus, Kadir Atalay, and Jonathan Newton). GitHub Repository for Data and Replication. Dedicated Twitter Account

Commodity Price Shocks and the Seasonality of Conflict (with Kadir Atalay and Justin Hastings).


Atalay, Kadir, Edwards, Rebecca, Schurer, Stefanie and Ubilava, David (2021) ‘Lives Saved During Economic Downturns: Evidence from Australia’. Health Economics, (in press). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4394

Hastings, Justin V., Phillips, Sarah G., Ubilava, David and Vasnev, Andrey (2021) ‘Price Transmission in Conflict–Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia’. Journal of African Economies, (in press). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejab012

Ubilava, David, Villoria, Nelson B. and Tack, Jesse B. (2019) ‘Smooth Transitions Across Latitudes and Longitudes: An Application of a Nonlinear Panel Regression to the Climate–Economics Nexus’. Economics Letters, 182, pp. 114–117. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.06.011

Ubilava, David and Abdolrahimi, Maryam (2019) ‘The El Niño Impact on Maize Yields is Amplified in Lower Income Teleconnected Countries’. Environmental Research Letters, 14, p. 054008. Available from: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0cd0

Ubilava, David (2019) ‘On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling’. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(1), pp. 80–100. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100516001127

Ubilava, David (2018) ‘The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability’. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1), pp. 239–263. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aax060

Smith, Sarah C. and Ubilava, David (2017) ‘The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth in the Developing World’. Global Environmental Change, 45, pp. 151–164. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.05.007

Ubilava, David (2017) ‘The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics’. World Development, 96, pp. 490–502. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.03.031

Tack, Jesse B. and Ubilava, David (2015) ‘Climate and Agricultural Risk: Measuring the Effect of ENSO on U.S. Crop Insurance’. Agricultural Economics, 46(2), pp. 245–257. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12154

Ubilava, David (2014) ‘El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Fishmeal–Soya Bean Meal Price Ratio: Regime-Dependent Dynamics Revisited’. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 41(4), pp. 583–604. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbt033

Ubilava, David and Holt, Matthew T. (2013) ‘El Niño Southern Oscillation and its Effects on World Vegetable Oil Prices: Assessing Asymmetries using Smooth Transition Models’. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 57(2), pp. 273–297. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8489.2012.00616.x

Tack, Jesse B. and Ubilava, David (2013) ‘The Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk’. Climatic Change, 121(4), pp. 689–700. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0918-x

Ubilava, David and Helmers, C. Gustav (2013) ‘Forecasting ENSO with a Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model’. Environmental Modelling & Software, 40(1), pp. 181–190. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.008

Ubilava, David (2012) ‘Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach’. Agribusiness: an International Journal, 28(1), pp. 29–41. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.20292

Ubilava, David (2012) ‘El Niño, La Niña, and World Coffee Price Dynamics’. Agricultural Economics, 43(1), pp. 17–26. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00562.x

Ubilava, David, Foster, Kenneth A., Lusk, Jayson L. and Nilsson, Tomas (2011) ‘Differences in Consumer Preferences when Facing Branded versus Non-branded Choices’. Journal of Consumer Behaviour, 10(2), pp. 61–70. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/cb.349

Ubilava, David, Barnett, Barry J., Coble, Keith H. and Harri, Ardian (2011) ‘The SURE Program and Its Interaction with Other Federal Farm Programs’. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 36(3), pp. 630–648. Available from: https://jareonline.org/articles/the-sure-program-and-its-interaction-with-other-federal-farm-programs/

Ubilava, David, Foster, Kenneth A., Lusk, Jayson L. and Nilsson, Tomas (2010) ‘Effects of Income and Social Awareness on Consumer WTP for Social Product Attributes’. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(4), pp. 587–593. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.02.002

Ubilava, David and Foster, Kenneth A. (2009) ‘Quality certification vs. product traceability: Consumer preferences for informational attributes of pork in Georgia’. Food Policy, 34(3), pp. 305–310. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2009.02.002