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Working Papers

Commodity Price Shocks and the Seasonality of Conflict (with Kadir Atalay and Justin Hastings).


[20] Angus, S.D., K. Atalay, J. Newton, and D. Ubilava (2021). Geographic Diversity in Economic Publishing. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 190, 255-262. Working Paper. Data and Replication Material. Dedicated Twitter Account. Media coverage: Vox EU

[19] Atalay, K., R. Edwards, S. Schurer, and D. Ubilava (2021). Lives Saved During Economic Downturns: Evidence from Australia. Heath Economics 30(10), 2452-2467. Working Paper. Media coverage: Vox EU, The Conversation

[18] Hastings, J.V., S.G. Phillips, Ubilava, D., and A. Vasnev (2021). Price Transmission in Conflict–Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia. Journal of African Economies (in press). Working Paper (with Justin Hastings, Sarah Phillips, and Andrey Vasnev). Data and Replication Material.

[17] Ubilava, D., N.B. Villoria, and J.B. Tack (2019). Smooth Transitions Across Latitudes and Longitudes: An Application of a Nonlinear Panel Regression to the Climate–Economics Nexus. Economics Letters 182, 114-117.

[16] Ubilava, D. and M. Abdolrahimi (2019). The El Ni~{n}o Impact on Maize Yields is Amplified in Lower Income Teleconnected Countries. Environmental Research Letters 14, 054008.

[15] Ubilava, D. (2019). On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling. Macroeconomic Dynamics 23(1), 80-100.

[14] Ubilava, D. (2018). The Role of El Ni~{n}o Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100(1), 239-263.

[13] Smith, S.C. and D. Ubilava (2017). The El Ni~{n}o Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth in the Developing World. Global Environmental Change 45, 151-164.

[12] Ubilava, D. (2017). The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics. World Development 96, 490-502.

[11] Tack, J.B. and D. Ubilava (2015). Climate and Agricultural Risk: Measuring the Effect of ENSO on U.S. Crop Insurance. Agricultural Economics 46(2), 245-257.

[10] Ubilava, D. (2014). El Ni~{n}o Southern Oscillation and the Fishmeal–Soya Bean Meal Price Ratio: Regime-Dependent Dynamics Revisited. European Review of Agricultural Economics 41(4), 583-604.

[9] Tack, J.B. and D. Ubilava (2013). The Effect of El Ni~{n}o Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk. Climatic Change 121(4), 689-700.

[8] Ubilava, D. and C.G. Helmers (2013). Forecasting ENSO with a Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model. Environmental Modelling & Software 40(1), 181-190.

[7] Ubilava, D. and M. T. Holt (2013). El Ni~{n}o Southern Oscillation and its Effects on World Vegetable Oil Prices: Assessing Asymmetries using Smooth Transition Models. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 57(2), 273-297.

[6] Ubilava, D. (2012). El Ni~{n}o, La Ni~{n}a, and World Coffee Price Dynamics. Agricultural Economics 43(1), 17-26.

[5] Ubilava, D. (2012). Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach. Agribusiness: an International Journal 28(1), 29-41.

[4] Ubilava, D., B.J. Barnett, K.H. Coble, and A. Harri (2011). The SURE Program and Its Interaction with Other Federal Farm Programs. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36(3), 630–648.

[3] Ubilava, D., K.A. Foster, J.L. Lusk, and T. Nilsson (2011). Differences in Consumer Preferences when Facing Branded versus Non-branded Choices. Journal of Consumer Behaviour 10(2), 61-70.

[2] Ubilava, D., K.A. Foster, J.L. Lusk, and T. Nilsson (2010). Effects of Income and Social Awareness on Consumer WTP for Social Product Attributes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(4), 587–593. .

[1] Ubilava, D. and K.A. Foster (2009). Quality Certification vs. Product Traceability: Consumer Preferences for Informational Attributes of Pork in Georgia. Food Policy 34(3), 305-310.