Research

Work in progress

Aid, Interrupted: Conflict Dynamics Following the USAID Suspension in Africa

With Annabelle Tan and Ashani Amarasinghe

Working paper

Prices and Protests: Evidence from Maize Markets across Africa

With Aaron Humphreys · Slides

Working paper

Missions Misaligned: Colonial Legacies of Social Conflict in Africa

With Ashani Amarasinghe and Jordi Vidal-Robert

In progress

Market Concentration and Resilience in Agricultural Supply Chains

With Timothy Richards and Mikaela Polyviou

In progress

Publications

25

Climate, Crops, and Postharvest Conflict

Ubilava, D. (2026). American Journal of Agricultural Economics 108(1), 3–27.

24

Agricultural Roots of Social Conflict in Southeast Asia

Hastings, J.V., and D. Ubilava (2025). Journal of Peace Research 62(6), 1714–1732.

23

Agricultural Windfalls and the Seasonality of Political Violence in Africa

Ubilava, D., Hastings, J.V., and K. Atalay (2023). American Journal of Agricultural Economics 105(5), 1309–1332.

22

Global Commodity Market Disruption and the Fallout

Ferguson, S., and D. Ubilava (2022). Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 66(4), 737–752.

20

Price Transmission in Conflict-Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia

Hastings, J.V., Phillips, S.G., Ubilava, D., and A. Vasnev (2022). Journal of African Economies 31(3), 272–291.

19

Geographic Diversity in Economic Publishing

Angus, S.D., Atalay, K., Newton, J., and D. Ubilava (2021). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 190, 255–262.

18

Lives Saved During Economic Downturns: Evidence from Australia

Atalay, K., Edwards, R., Schurer, S., and D. Ubilava (2021). Health Economics 30(10), 2452–2467.

17

Smooth Transitions Across Latitudes and Longitudes: An Application of a Nonlinear Panel Regression to the Climate–Economics Nexus

Ubilava, D., Villoria, N.B., and J.B. Tack (2019). Economics Letters 182, 114–117.

16

The El Niño Impact on Maize Yields is Amplified in Lower Income Teleconnected Countries

Ubilava, D., and M. Abdolrahimi (2019). Environmental Research Letters 14, 054008.

14

The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability

Ubilava, D. (2018). American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100(1), 239–263.

13

The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth in the Developing World

Smith, S.C., and D. Ubilava (2017). Global Environmental Change 45, 151–164.

12

The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics

Ubilava, D. (2017). World Development 96, 490–502.

11

Climate and Agricultural Risk: Measuring the Effect of ENSO on U.S. Crop Insurance

Tack, J.B., and D. Ubilava (2015). Agricultural Economics 46(2), 245–257.

10

El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Fishmeal–Soya Bean Meal Price Ratio: Regime-Dependent Dynamics Revisited

Ubilava, D. (2014). European Review of Agricultural Economics 41(4), 583–604.

9

The Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. Corn Production and Downside Risk

Tack, J.B., and D. Ubilava (2013). Climatic Change 121(4), 689–700.

8

Forecasting ENSO with a Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model

Ubilava, D., and C.G. Helmers (2013). Environmental Modelling & Software 40(1), 181–190.

7

El Niño Southern Oscillation and its Effects on World Vegetable Oil Prices: Assessing Asymmetries using Smooth Transition Models

Ubilava, D., and M.T. Holt (2013). Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 57(2), 273–297.

6

El Niño, La Niña, and World Coffee Price Dynamics

Ubilava, D. (2012). Agricultural Economics 43(1), 17–26.

5

Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach

Ubilava, D. (2012). Agribusiness: An International Journal 28(1), 29–41.

4

The SURE Program and Its Interaction with Other Federal Farm Programs

Ubilava, D., Barnett, B.J., Coble, K.H., and A. Harri (2011). Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 36(3), 630–648.

3

Differences in Consumer Preferences when Facing Branded versus Non-branded Choices

Ubilava, D., Foster, K.A., Lusk, J.L., and T. Nilsson (2011). Journal of Consumer Behaviour 10(2), 61–70.

2

Effects of Income and Social Awareness on Consumer WTP for Social Product Attributes

Ubilava, D., Foster, K.A., Lusk, J.L., and T. Nilsson (2010). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(4), 587–593.