Economic Time Series Modeling and Forecasting
These notes are prepared to teach an undergraduate-level course on economic forecasting. The content is presented in four parts. The first part, Preliminaries, introduces the concept of forecasting in time series context. The second part, Deterministic Time Series Models, covers trends and seasonal models. The third part, Dynamic Time Series Models, covers linear, multivariate, and nonlinear autoregressive processes. The fourth part, Forecast Assessment, goes over forecast evaluation and combination routines, and forecast accuracy tests.